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U.S. Gasoline Hits 2026 High as Analysts Warn Prices Could Top $5 This Summer

Disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz from the U.S.-Iran conflict have tightened supply, raising the risk of much higher pump prices this summer.

Overview

  • The national average for regular gasoline reached $4.564 per gallon on Thursday, May 21, marking a 2026 high and the fifth straight daily increase, according to AAA data.
  • GasBuddy models and analysts say that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the national average could climb to $5 per gallon or more between Memorial Day and Labor Day.
  • Surveys and local reporting show drivers are changing plans because of fuel costs, with GasBuddy finding 67% of respondents said prices affected driving plans and 36% plan fewer road trips.
  • Prices vary widely by region, with Gulf states reporting the lowest averages while California tops the nation at about $6.14 per gallon, deepening uneven economic pressure across states.
  • Policy responses such as Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and temporary state gas-tax pauses are in play but analysts warn supply fixes could take months to more than a year to bring prices back to pre-conflict levels.