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U.S. February Deficit Holds Near $308 Billion as Tariff Ruling Impact Lags

Tariff changes following the Supreme Court decision have not yet affected reported receipts.

Overview

  • The federal government posted a $308 billion shortfall in February, roughly matching a year earlier as receipts and outlays increased by the same $17 billion.
  • Receipts rose 6% to $313 billion and outlays climbed 3% to $621 billion compared with February 2025.
  • A Treasury official said withheld individual income taxes increased by $15 billion on year-end bonuses, partly offset by a $7 billion rise in corporate refunds and a $6 billion rise in individual refunds tied to last year's tax law.
  • Net customs duties cooled to $26.6 billion for the month, and because tariffs are paid in arrears, the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling and any related refunds are not yet reflected after CBP halted assessments on Feb. 24.
  • For the fiscal year to date, the deficit reached $1.004 trillion, about 12% lower than a year earlier, with customs duties of $151 billion surpassing corporate tax receipts and net interest costs totaling $79 billion in February.