U.S. Farm Futures Slip as Wetter Forecast and Oil Drop Hit Early Monday Trading

Overview

• Soybean, corn and wheat futures fell on Monday morning with nearby soybeans down about 32–35 cents and corn off roughly 12–14 cents after NOAA’s 7‑day forecast showed 1–2 inches of rain across much of the Corn Belt and crude oil prices slid.
• CFTC Commitment of Traders data for the week ending July 21 showed large speculative buying that has amplified market swings, with managed funds adding about 52,212 contracts to soybean longs and 49,518 to corn longs while cutting roughly 12,281 contracts from a near‑record lean hog net short.
• USDA weekly export and inventory reports keep fundamentals tight: old‑crop U.S. soybean export commitments have reached 41.38 MMT, equal to 100% of the USDA projection, and June 30 pork stocks rose to 458.22 million pounds, up 9.44% year‑over‑year.
• USDA also said it will reopen Mexican cattle imports at Douglas, Arizona by August 23, and weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter totaled 528,000 head last week, a figure slightly above the prior week but below year‑ago levels.
• The combination of a critical July–August weather window, large managed‑money positions, and firm export demand means prices can swing quickly; traders and growers should watch short‑range NOAA rainfall updates, weekly USDA export sales, CFTC positioning, and crude oil moves for the next cues.