Overview
- Fuel prices spiked this week with national diesel averaging about $6.30–$6.40 per gallon and regular gasoline near $4.40 per gallon, driven by futures for Brent and WTI trading above $100 a barrel.
- Analysts point to layered supply shocks from the U.S.-Iran conflict, expanded Houthi attacks, the damaged East‑West Saudi pipeline and reduced refinery runs in Russia and elsewhere as the main causes of the squeeze.
- Industry tracker Kpler estimates millions of barrels per day of lost Middle East production and product exports, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported distillate inventories roughly 13% below the five‑year average.
- Record diesel costs are raising transport, food and heating bills, adding near‑term inflation risk and prompting responses from policymakers, including White House talks with refiners and Federal Reserve concern about price pass‑through.
- Some short‑term relief came this week after Saudi measures to restore pipeline capacity and boost ship‑to‑ship loadings, but major outlets remain constrained and leading banks say reliable baseline forecasts of prices are not possible right now.