Overview
- The United States formally told Canada and Mexico it will not renew the USMCA in its current form, a move that shifts the agreement into yearly joint reviews for up to ten years and could let the pact lapse on July 1, 2036 if no new deal is reached.
- U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer set a third round of bilateral talks with Mexico for the week of July 20, and Washington has held only informal exchanges with Canada while signalling interest in separate side agreements rather than a single trilateral rewrite.
- A central U.S. demand is a 50% U.S.-specific content requirement for North American-built vehicles that would push the regional rules-of-origin threshold to roughly 82% to qualify for tariff-free treatment.
- The administration is using existing tariffs on autos, steel, aluminum and lumber as bargaining leverage, a strategy that keeps those duties in place and raises short-term uncertainty for auto, metals, lumber, farm and energy supply chains.
- USMCA was negotiated in 2017–20 to replace NAFTA and remains in force during reviews; negotiators may pursue side protocols to change rules without full congressional reapproval and businesses face possible higher costs, delayed investment and reshaped regional supply lines.