Overview
- The University of Michigan’s preliminary June index rose 9% to 48.9, the survey showed on Friday, marking the first month-over-month increase since February.
- Survey director Joanne Hsu said the early-June improvement tracked directly to easing gasoline prices, which are a highly visible cost for households.
- Lower-income consumers posted the largest gains in sentiment because gasoline makes up a bigger share of their budgets and recent price declines gave them more immediate relief.
- Sentiment remains well below historical norms after a record low in May, so analysts warn the recovery is fragile and likely requires sustained gasoline declines.
- Because consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP, persistent weak confidence could weigh on spending and factor into Federal Reserve decisions if fuel and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz do not normalize.