Overview
- The University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 54.4, the highest reading since February, based on a survey conducted June 23 to July 13.
- Survey director Joanne Hsu said the month‑to‑month increase largely reflected easing price pressures at the pump during much of the survey window.
- More than 70% of interviews were completed before the ceasefire collapsed and U.S. strikes resumed on July 7, and gasoline prices have moved higher since the survey ended, creating a downside risk to the reading.
- Consumers’ one‑year inflation expectations fell to 4.2% and June retail spending rose modestly by 0.2% overall and 0.7% excluding gasoline, while a still‑tight labor market is keeping household spending afloat.
- Sentiment remains about 12% below last year and well below pre‑conflict levels, so a sustained rise in energy costs could push inflation higher and renew pressure on households and policy makers.