Overview
- The Conference Board said its confidence index rose to 91.8 in March, beating the 88 forecast and remaining below the 1985 baseline of 100 that marks net optimism.
- The Present Situation Index improved to 123.3 while the Expectations Index slipped to 70.9, a level that has often signaled recession risk when it stays low.
- More people called jobs plentiful at 27.3% and slightly more said jobs were hard to get at 21.5%, with 42% now expecting interest rates to be higher over the next year.
- One-year inflation expectations climbed to the highest since August 2025, which the group linked to oil concerns from the Iran war and to gasoline averaging above $4 a gallon, a jump Stanford economists say could add about $740 to a typical household’s yearly fuel bill.
- Write-in responses leaned pessimistic with more mentions of prices, oil and the Iran war, and the University of Michigan survey also pointed to weak sentiment, while optimism varied by age and political affiliation.