Overview
- NAFSA and research partner JB International used IIE spring data to forecast roughly 1,057,000 international students in 2026–27, a decline of about 112,000 or 9.5 percent from 2025–26.
- The groups warned on Wednesday that the projected fall could cut up to $3.4 billion in local student spending and eliminate about 39,000 to 40,000 jobs that rely on international-student presence.
- Reporters and analysts say policy moves under the Trump administration — including mass visa denials, social-media vetting, status terminations and a newly finalized DHS rule limiting many students to four-year authorized stays — are the main causes of the downturn.
- Graduate and doctoral programs are bearing the biggest losses, with reported drops of about 21 percent in international doctoral applications and a 17 percent fall in admissions that threaten research labs, teaching assistant pools and hospital staffing.
- NAFSA urged targeted fixes such as prioritizing student visa interviews, exempting students and J-exchange visitors from certain travel restrictions, and preserving Optional Practical Training to try to stabilize enrollment and protect campus revenue.