Overview
- The United States and Iran signed a reported 14-point interim memorandum that begins a 60-day negotiation window and calls for toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, officials said on Thursday.
- Brent and WTI slid into the high-$70s as traders priced in a faster return of Iranian and Gulf barrels and major banks trimmed near-term oil forecasts.
- Industry and shipping groups say full resumption of tanker traffic will take weeks to months because mines must be cleared, insurers and shipowners need reassurance, and a backlog of vessels and crew rotations must be resolved.
- U.S. commercial stocks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have been heavily drawn during the crisis and are now at multi-decade lows, leaving less policy buffer and slowing how quickly lower crude prices pass through to pump prices.
- The International Energy Agency says that if Gulf output recovers as expected the market could flip from shortage to a significant supply overhang in 2027, so implementation speed and any political reversals will be key risks to watch.