Overview
- Negotiators have reportedly reached a tentative memorandum to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and bar Iran from imposing tolls on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with final approval still required from President Trump, sources said on Friday.
- U.S. officials publicly rejected an unofficial draft circulated by Iranian state media and senior U.S. aides including J.D. Vance warned that key nuclear language and enrichment issues remain unresolved.
- Markets priced in reduced tail risk as oil prices fell and many equity indexes rallied to fresh highs in early trading, yet volatility persisted with Asian gains and Australian rebounds followed by a dramatic late sell‑off in India that erased earlier gains.
- Analysts cautioned that a signed memorandum would not instantly restore oil flows because shipowners may delay transits and restarting production and logistics in the Persian Gulf will take time.
- The next decisive moves to watch are the final text of the memorandum, President Trump’s sign‑off, the outcome of nuclear negotiations and flows from index rebalancing and foreign investors that could quickly reverse market sentiment.