Overview
- U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative memorandum to extend their ceasefire for 60 days and ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which sources said Thursday still requires President Donald Trump’s formal approval.
- Traders priced the development into markets, pushing Brent toward the low $90s a barrel, lifting global equities to fresh highs and nudging the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield down to about 4.45%.
- The agreement is unfinished because negotiators have not resolved substantive nuclear and legal language, U.S. officials called an unofficial Iranian draft a 'fabrication', and lawmakers warned issues such as Iran’s enriched‑uranium stockpile remain open.
- Renewed military exchanges this week, including U.S. strikes and Iranian responses, repeatedly tested the fragile détente and kept volatility high with some regional indices falling on fresh skirmish reports.
- Reopening the Strait would ease a major supply choke point that lifts energy security, but the flow of tankers and crude production would recover only gradually, with direct effects on inflation, bond yields and energy‑importing countries such as India.