Overview
- A U.S. official said both sides agreed to halt recent strikes and resume peace talks, a shift that eased the spike in hostilities and calmed markets on Monday.
- Global markets reacted quickly with U.S. futures led by Nasdaq gains and Brent crude falling back to about $72–73 a barrel after earlier intraday spikes.
- Indian equities opened cautiously and ended lower as investors weighed the fragile de‑escalation against domestic headwinds, with the Sensex closing around 76,728 and the Nifty near 23,946.
- Near‑term drivers for India include incoming PMI and industrial output data, monthly auto sales, monsoon rainfall readings and negotiations on a potential India–U.S. trade deal, all of which will interact with oil moves to shape inflation and the current account.
- The ceasefire is fragile because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and occasional strikes can still disrupt oil flows, and U.S. jobs and Fed‑rate expectations could push the dollar and yields higher, affecting gold and foreign capital flows into Indian markets.