Overview
- Negotiators said a draft memorandum of understanding is close and could be signed within days after Pakistan brokered shuttle talks that negotiators signalled agreement on a text on Friday.
- Reported draft terms would reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately, restore prewar shipping and lift the U.S. naval blockade while beginning a 60-day technical phase for detailed negotiations.
- The agreement would link release of frozen Iranian assets and sanctions relief to verified Iranian performance rather than grant unconditional payments.
- Sharp public disputes remain over who controls the strait and whether Iran’s enriched uranium would be removed and destroyed or down‑blended, and President Trump has publicly rejected parts of Iranian leaks about the deal.
- Kinetic risks persist because U.S. forces shot down Iranian attack drones near the strait and CENTCOM said traffic remains open, a pattern that makes any short truce highly vulnerable to rapid collapse and will shape oil markets, regional security and Israeli objections.