Overview
- At a leaders’ summit this week, both sides are weighing an extension of the one‑year Busan deal that eased rare‑earths trade, after a U.S. official said Sunday the truce remains in force and could be renewed.
- Chinese customs figures show exports of heavy rare earths such as yttrium, dysprosium, and terbium are still down about 50% from pre‑control levels, which analysts say reflects selective licensing for strategically sensitive uses.
- Short supplies have pushed prices higher outside China, with dysprosium and terbium up four‑ to five‑fold and yttrium up roughly 140‑fold, and manufacturers report magnet costs that are now 1.5 to 3 times higher.
- U.S. allies feel the squeeze as well, with Japan receiving only a fraction of its prior dysprosium imports and Germany getting none, raising risks for factories that build EV motors, turbines, and aerospace parts.
- Washington is racing to cut dependence on China’s processing and magnet output—about 85% and over 90% of the global total—through funding, Project Vault stockpiles, and deals like USA Rare Earth’s bid for Brazil’s Serra Verde, even as the truce faces a November 2026 expiry and a 2027 U.S. defense ban on Chinese‑sourced rare earths.