Overview
- A senior U.S. adviser, Aryeh Lightstone, met in recent months with senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya as part of Peace Council-led efforts to negotiate a roadmap for disarming Hamas in Gaza.
- Negotiators have hit a technical and political impasse after Hamas hardened its position and returned discussions to a dispute over what counts as heavy versus light weapons.
- Israeli military intelligence and Southern Command officers warned that Hamas is rebuilding weapons, recruiting and training fighters, and reconstructing tunnels, and some Israeli officials have urged resuming operations.
- Washington and the Trump Peace Council, overseen by Nikolay Mladenov, are pressing to preserve the ceasefire while advancing linked work on governance, rule of law, reconstruction and a possible international stabilization force.
- If talks fail, the likely consequences are a breakdown of the fragile ceasefire, delays to reconstruction and governance plans for civilians in Gaza, and higher risk of a renewed military campaign.