Overview
- The U.S. government issued a 60-day sanctions waiver on Monday that allows Iran to sell crude and gives access to related banking, insurance and shipping services worldwide.
- Vessel trackers and market reports showed tankers beginning limited transits through the Strait of Hormuz, including two ships carrying nearly 2 million barrels, as shipping operations cautiously resume.
- Brent and U.S. crude futures fell into the mid-to-high $70s and national gasoline averages dropped into the low $3s per gallon as markets quickly priced in returning Gulf supply.
- Physical-market constraints persist because the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits near its lowest level since June 1983 at about 331.2 million barrels and commercial inventories remain below seasonal norms, while mines, port damage and high insurance and freight costs slow flows.
- Analysts differ on timing with the IEA warning tightness could last into October and some banks projecting Gulf exports near normal by late July, and consumers can expect gradual pump relief while governments and refiners manage restocking costs and fiscal knock-on effects.