Urals Oil Falls Back to Pre‑Crisis Levels, Increasing Pressure on Moscow’s Budget

Overview

• Urals crude in western Russian ports averaged about $41.66 per barrel in the first three days of July, returning to prices seen before the Middle East shipping disruptions.
• Argus Media data show the Urals discount to Dated Brent widened to roughly $27.35 per barrel but narrows to about $8.55 on delivery to India, creating strong regional arbitrage.
• Because Russia calculates oil taxes with a lag, the July price drop is expected to reduce state tax receipts reported in August and widen an already large 2026 fiscal shortfall.
• Moscow had used higher March–June Urals prices to rebuild reserves and delay some cuts, but the budget deficit through May was already about 6 trillion rubles, or roughly 2.6% of GDP.
• Market watchers warn Gulf flows could reverse because the transit arrangements and sanction relief are temporary, and added OPEC+ and UAE output are keeping downward pressure on prices.