Overview
- A large upper-level Pacific low over northern Mexico is moving northeast and is expected to send several shortwaves into Texas, producing scattered to locally intense showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
- The Weather Prediction Center and local NWS offices have placed much of South and Central Texas at a level 1 of 4 slight risk of excessive rainfall, meaning a few locations could see flash flooding from isolated heavy downpours.
- San Antonio’s rain chances rise into Friday with about a 60% chance of scattered afternoon storms that will mostly drop under an inch but could include isolated slow-moving cells that exceed 2 inches and cause flash flooding.
- Storm odds shift Saturday toward the Hill Country north to San Angelo and Abilene where some storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts during late afternoon and evening.
- Earlier this week storms left a sharp ‘rain lottery’ across Austin with totals from under 0.25 inch to more than 2 inches and gusts near 50 mph, illustrating how small shifts in the low’s track or mesoscale boundaries could quickly change who sees flooding or severe weather.