Overview
- On February 23, a trader wagered nearly $100,000 that the Trump administration will confirm alien life by year-end, followed about 35 minutes later by a second bet almost twice as large.
- The back-to-back orders briefly pushed Kalshi’s price to imply at least a one-in-three chance of a U.S. confirmation this year.
- Prediction-market analyst Ben Shindel said the pattern could reflect an inexperienced trader, adding that the other possibility is an insider.
- Kalshi told Newsweek it is looking into the report, after previously reporting an unrelated MrBeast employee for improper trades as regulators and platforms confront insider risks.
- Trading interest accelerated after Barack Obama’s remark and President Trump’s directive to review and release UAP-related records, while agencies report work underway and no evidence of extraterrestrial life disclosed.