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UnitedHealth Gets Upgrade as Analysts Bet on Optum Margin Rebound

The call signals fresh confidence that a cost reset could lift 2026 earnings through Optum margin gains.

Overview

  • Raymond James raised UnitedHealth to Outperform with a $330 target, saying Wall Street underrates expense cuts and the potential for Optum Health to lift margins.
  • Shares trade in the high $270s after falling about 50% over 12 months and roughly 17% this year, leaving the stock at about 13.5 times expected earnings.
  • Management is exiting unprofitable contracts and shrinking membership by about 2.3 to 2.8 million as it guides to more than $24 billion in operating earnings and a 5.5% margin in 2026.
  • Optum leaders kept a long‑term margin goal of 6% to 8% and said about 30% of mature value‑based care patients already meet or beat that range, with a $1.6 billion AI push, including the Avery assistant, aimed at automating claims and improving profitability.
  • UBS reaffirmed a Buy with a $410 target after meeting management, which reiterated a 65% first‑half and 35% second‑half earnings split and expressed comfort with near‑term medical cost ratios, while filings show Tudor Investment expanded its stake.