Overview
- Ship-tracking data reported by Reuters show U.S. crude and fuel exports reached about 10.5 million barrels per day in May, putting the United States ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia for a third consecutive month.
- Analysts and officials link the U.S. surge to sustained high shale production and releases from U.S. strategic reserves together with reduced Saudi and Russian flows caused by the U.S.–Iran military confrontation and attacks plus sanctions.
- Major buyers are already rerouting supplies to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, with Japan announcing plans to source nearly all July imports from routes that do not pass through the strait and to sharply raise U.S. purchases.
- The shift strengthens Washington’s economic and diplomatic leverage in energy talks, but recent U.S. strikes and President Trump’s public comments about seizing Iranian oil infrastructure have heightened near-term security and market uncertainty.
- OPEC cohesion has weakened, underscored by the UAE’s exit, and the longer-term backdrop is the post-2010 U.S. shale boom that transformed the country from an importer to a dominant global supplier.