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United Cuts 5% of Flying as It Models $175 Oil Scenario

Robust bookings give United room to trim unprofitable routes without furloughs or deferred aircraft orders.

Overview

  • Jet fuel and crude prices have jumped in recent weeks, with Brent rising from about $70 to roughly $110 a barrel following regional disruptions tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
  • United is canceling roughly 3 percentage points of off-peak flying in Q2 and Q3, keeping Tel Aviv and Dubai service suspended for about 1 point, and planning to pull about 1 point at Chicago O’Hare pending an FAA process, for a total cut near 5 points with plans to restore by fall.
  • The airline says it will not furlough employees or defer aircraft deliveries and will maintain long-term investments while pruning temporarily unprofitable flying.
  • Leadership is preparing for oil to remain above $100 through the end of 2027 and has outlined a worst-case scenario with crude at $175 a barrel.
  • If prices hold near current levels, United estimates about $11 billion in additional annual fuel expense even as it logs the 10 strongest booking weeks in its history.