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Unicaja Raises 2025 Regional Forecasts, Flags 2026 Slowdown Risks

Stronger household spending with resilient industry is propelling 2025 gains despite looming trade tensions.

Overview

  • Andalucía’s outlook has been revised to about 3% for 2025, with Málaga leading provincial growth at an estimated 3.7% GDP and a 3.3% rise in social security contributors.
  • Castilla y León’s economy expanded 3.5% year over year in Q3, driven by industry, transport and domestic demand, and the regional government now expects at least 2.8% growth for 2025.
  • Unicaja’s study unit projects Castilla y León at 2.5% growth in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, with provincial disparities from roughly 1.6% in Soria to around 3.1% in Salamanca.
  • Cantabria is forecast to grow 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with employment up about 1% this year and unemployment near 7.4%.
  • Analysts attribute the near-term strength to domestic demand and services while cautioning that tariffs and wider geopolitical tensions are likely to temper growth in 2026.