Overview
- The University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll, conducted July 15–20 and released July 22–23, found Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez leading likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire with 22% to Pete Buttigieg’s 21%.
- The survey shows AOC’s strength concentrated among self‑described socialists and progressives while Buttigieg draws from progressives, liberals and moderates, and several previously higher‑rated Democrats — including Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris — fell in New Hampshire since February.
- On the Republican side the poll put Vice President JD Vance at 36% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26%, a notable gain for Rubio that reduced Vance’s earlier margin in the state.
- Methodology and limits matter: the online poll sampled about 1,458 New Hampshire residents with smaller party subsamples (roughly 648 Democrats and 579 Republicans), has margins of error larger for subsamples, tests a hypothetical race well before formal campaigns and therefore serves as an early snapshot not a forecast.
- The practical takeaway is strategic: the final Democratic nominating calendar and endorsements — including President Trump’s influence on GOP voters — could amplify or erase these New Hampshire leads, so the poll signals shifting coalitions but not a settled race.