Overview
- Byron Donalds leads 42%–36% over David Jolly and 43%–36% over Jerry Demings, with 17% and 16% undecided in the respective matchups.
- Donalds consolidates the Republican base with 79% support and tops 80% among 2024 Trump voters, while drawing 5% among Democrats and under 10% among Black voters.
- Ashley Moody holds a 45%–38% edge over Alexander Vindman and a 46%–38% lead over Angie Nixon in early Senate testing.
- Two-thirds of voters have not heard of Vindman and nearly three-quarters have not heard of Nixon, signaling significant room for name-ID growth.
- The UNF PORL survey of 786 likely midterm voters ran Feb. 21–Mar. 2 (±4.4 points) and shows Trump at 45% favorable to 48% unfavorable, as the lab’s director notes the GOP advantage appears smaller than in recent years.