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2mo ago

UNDP Says Iran Conflict Could Push 32 Million Into Poverty and Cut Up to $299 Billion From Asia-Pacific Output

A new UNDP analysis says Middle East supply shocks now threaten Asia’s growth.

Indian buyers queue to refill their empty liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders near a gas agency office in Noida, on the outskirts of New Delhi, India, on March 27.
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West Asia conflict threatens to push 2.5 million people in India into poverty: UNDP report
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Overview

  • - The UNDP, which released new modeling Tuesday, estimates the escalation could put about 32 million more people in poverty worldwide, including 8.8 million in Asia-Pacific, and shave $97–$299 billion from the region’s output.
  • - India faces one of the largest country impacts, with poverty projected to rise by about 2.46 million people under a severe scenario, nudging the rate from 23.9% to 24.2%.
  • - The report ties the damage to higher oil and gas prices, disrupted shipping through chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, and cost spikes from freight surcharges, war-risk insurance, and diverted routes.
  • - Food risks are building as the FAO warns of potential “catastrophic” shortages due to fertilizer and fuel disruptions, while the IMF flags a growth downgrade and the ADB trims Asia’s forecast to 5.1% for 2026 and 2027.
  • - UNDP urges targeted relief such as about $6 billion in short-term cash transfers, noting added pressures for India’s June Kharif planting season and for households dependent on Gulf remittances.