Overview
- The World Food Programme said on Friday that its March warning is materialising because benchmark crude has stayed high and the conflict’s disruption of Gulf shipping is raising global food and fuel costs.
- WFP analysis projects big country hits with about 6.5 million in Somalia, 17.4 million in Afghanistan, and up to 1.3 million in Sri Lanka facing or at risk of severe hunger in 2026.
- Logistics have worsened sharply as fuel and rerouting raise transport costs—in Afghanistan road transport costs rose up to fivefold and delivery times moved from about 10 days to as many as 75 days.
- Funding and supply risks mean the WFP expects to serve 1.5 million fewer people in 2026 and warns that if the conflict lasts six more months more than 9 million people could lose assistance, with a likely food pipeline break in Somalia.
- The crisis could deepen through fertilizer shortages, higher insurance and freight rates, and a possible strong El Niño, so donors, shipping routes, and fuel prices are the key things to watch next.