Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization, in an update on Sept. 3, said forecasts show a near-100% chance El Niño will continue through February 2027 and that it is set to intensify to a very strong event.
- Ocean measurements show the Niño 3.4 index has risen above +2°C in weekly values and pockets of subsurface water are more than 8°C above normal, which together support further strengthening.
- Forecasters warn the event will shift the odds of weather extremes worldwide, raising risks to crops, fisheries, water supplies, energy systems and public health through more intense heat, floods and drought.
- National and local authorities are stepping up preparedness now, including early warnings, infrastructure checks and sector briefings, with examples such as LA County inspecting dams and SAWS briefing disaster managers in South Africa.
- Past very strong El Niños have driven large food, water and economic damages, and WMO officials say the current warming could give 2027 a temporary pulse that makes it a record-warm year if the pattern persists.