Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office released the five‑year outlook on Thursday, May 28, 2026, saying mean global temperatures for 2026–2030 are likely to sit between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre‑industrial levels.
- The report gives a 75 percent chance that the 2026–2030 five‑year average will exceed 1.5°C and an 86 percent chance that at least one year in that span will be warmer than 2024.
- Scientists warn the Arctic will warm much faster than the global average, with projected winter anomalies of about 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, raising risks to ice, ecosystems and weather patterns.
- Western Europe is already seeing early, severe May heatwaves that broke local records and caused heat‑linked deaths, and national forecasters and private services warn of multiple UK heatwaves this summer with an increased chance of breaking the 40.3°C UK record.
- The outlook highlights shifting rainfall patterns and higher risks to people, food and infrastructure, and it connects the near‑term danger to a likely El Niño at the end of 2026 that could make 2027 yet hotter and more extreme.