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3w ago

UN Forecast Says Global Temperatures Likely Near Records Through 2026–2030

A developing El Niño on top of human-driven warming will raise the odds of a year exceeding 1.5°C, increasing regional heat, health, power stresses.

Image
A man takes shelter in the shade of a palm tree to protect himself from the sun in a beach in Barcelona, Spain, Wednesday, May 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)
FILE - Residents transport drinking water from Humaita to the Paraizinho community, along the dry Madeira River, a tributary of the Amazon River, during the dry season, Amazonas state, Brazil, Sept. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Edmar Barros, File)
FILE - Large icebergs float away as the sun rises near Kulusuk, Greenland, on Aug. 16, 2019. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana, File)

Overview

  • On Thursday, May 28, 2026 the World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office released a Global Annual‑to‑Decadal Update that projects 2026–2030 mean annual temperatures between about 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 pre‑industrial average.
  • The update gives specific odds that the five‑year average will exceed 1.5°C (75 percent chance), that at least one year will top 1.5°C (91 percent chance), and that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record (86 percent chance).
  • Scientists expect an El Niño to develop at the end of 2026, which the report says will raise the probability that 2027 could become the next record‑hot year by boosting global temperatures on top of human‑caused warming.
  • North‑west Europe is already feeling extreme heat with amber health warnings, reported heat‑linked deaths in France and Spain, and rising power demand in France that the grid operator RTE pegs at a May 28 daytime peak near 52.8 gigawatts.
  • The report warns of faster Arctic warming, higher fire and drought risk in the Amazon, and shifts in regional rainfall, and it notes that short‑term exceedances of 1.5°C differ from the Paris Agreement’s 20‑year averaging metric but still signal greater near‑term risks for people, crops and infrastructure.