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UMass Poll Shows Sharp Drop in MAGA Identification as Trump Heads GOP Convention

The decline in self‑identified MAGA supporters signals a potential turnout and electability problem for Republicans because strategists say the base may not be large enough to win competitive midterm races.

Overview

  • A UMass Amherst national poll of 1,000 adults, conducted Aug. 21–26 with a ±3.5% margin of error, found a 9‑percentage‑point fall in Republicans who say they identify as MAGA since March.
  • Identification with MAGA also fell 6 points among Independent voters in the same poll, a drop reporters tied to short‑term erosion in the movement’s self‑reported strength.
  • The poll showed MAGA identification skews toward older, lower‑income and less‑educated Republicans, with higher rates among those over 55, those with only a high school diploma, and those earning under $40,000 a year.
  • President Trump headlined the Republican midterm convention in Dallas and pledged $5,000 payments to adults if Republicans retain control while saying he will campaign for congressional candidates, but he offered no implementation details for the pledge.
  • Republican pollsters warn that a smaller MAGA pool could hurt turnout and competitiveness in swing districts as Republicans defend narrow House and Senate margins and voters weigh policy appeals beyond movement labels; the poll also found low familiarity with the DSA even as many Americans back policies associated with it.