Overview
- Researchers published a modelling analysis in mid-July that used 2015 Canadian dietary data to estimate that 23%–38% of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in 2019—about 58,200–96,000 cases and 10,600–17,400 deaths—were attributable to ultra-processed food (UPF) intake.
- The study modelled counterfactual scenarios and estimated that halving UPF consumption could have prevented roughly 27,300–45,900 new CVD cases and about 5,000–8,300 deaths in Canada.
- Authors defined UPFs as industrially produced packaged items such as sugary drinks, processed meats, ready meals, many snacks and mass-produced breads that often contain additives and are high in sugar, salt or saturated fat.
- Independent experts cautioned the work is a modelling exercise that borrows risk estimates from other countries and uses a 2015 dietary snapshot, so it cannot prove that industrial processing itself causes heart disease rather than the poor nutrient profiles of many UPFs.
- Study authors and public-health groups urged structural actions to change the food environment, and the coverage says further longitudinal and interventional studies are needed to test causality and evaluate specific policy effects on diet and heart risk.