Overview
- A campaign of long-range Ukrainian strikes in May–June reduced Russia's gasoline output by about 25 percent, leaving refining capacity well below summer demand by mid-June.
- Rosstat data for June 23–29 show fuel prices rising across 82 regions with emergency limits on sales in more than 40 regions and a 30 percent weekly spike in Sevastopol.
- The Kremlin has acknowledged the crisis, begun releasing reserves, approved import subsidies and tax changes, and is sourcing gasoline shipments from India and expanded deliveries from Belarus.
- Despite the domestic squeeze, tanker-tracking firms report a record four-week average of roughly 4.13 million barrels per day of Russian maritime exports and about 133 million barrels parked at sea while export revenues fall because of steep discounts.
- Sanctions and limited spare refining capacity abroad restrict how fast imports can cover the gap, which risks higher transport fares, broader supply-chain inflation, and further rationing if diesel distribution worsens.