Overview
- An intensified Ukrainian long‑range drone and missile campaign has degraded a large share of Russia's refining capacity, with an analyst estimating roughly 28% of capacity compromised.
- Russia has acknowledged pressure on fuel stocks and is negotiating imports to stabilise supply while imposing temporary bans on gasoline and kerosene exports announced on June 28.
- The Kremlin has relaxed fuel rules to allow lower‑grade petrol, removed weekly Rosstat price reports, and is using emergency measures that aim to hide and manage shortages.
- Shortages have produced rationing, long queues, regional limits on purchases, reports of black‑market resellers and claims of vehicle damage from lower‑quality fuels.
- Trade flows are shifting: sea crude exports hit record levels even as Russia starts importing refined gasoline from countries including India, and the EU's €3.9 billion drone tranche raises the prospect of continued strikes on fuel infrastructure.