Overview
- Ukraine has stepped up drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries, depots and fuel convoys, which on Friday produced visible shortages and rationing in Crimea with long queues at petrol stations.
- Authorities in several Russian regions have introduced purchase limits and coupon systems that cap motorists at about 20 litres per week while some traders charge higher prices.
- Moscow is offering mixed public messages as regional governors deny broad shortages but Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has publicly said crude output is falling because refineries are undergoing unscheduled repairs.
- Market reporting based on Reuters calculations shows Russia’s crude exports are expected to drop sharply for June to roughly 1.7 million barrels per day from about 2.5 million bpd in May.
- Analysts say Kyiv’s two-track campaign of long-range strikes on production and mid-range hits on transport is designed to choke Russia’s fuel logistics and has already hit Crimea’s tourism and daily life, with Moscow warning of stepped-up military strikes and stronger air defences in response.