Overview
- Ukrainian military intelligence deputy chief Vadym Skibitskyi told media on Monday that Russia has begun launching its Rassvet satellites faster than planned and currently has about 16 in low Earth orbit.
- Officials say Rassvet now provides only intermittent coverage over Ukraine when a satellite passes overhead and cannot yet deliver continuous service like Starlink.
- Kyiv reports Russia aims to grow the constellation to roughly 292 satellites by 2027 and about 924 by 2035, with Moscow projecting commercial operations from 2027.
- Ukrainian authorities are already planning countermeasures and analysts point to a key vulnerability in Rassvet’s reliance on fixed ground stations that could be targeted inside Russia while NATO-hosted stations serving Ukraine remain politically sensitive.
- Experts caution the program faces practical limits — including Russia’s constrained launch capacity and at least one reported satellite loss — which may slow Rassvet’s ability to match Starlink’s battlefield role that has been vital for Ukraine’s drones and battlefield communications.