Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Ukraine Holds Key Rate at 15% as Central Bank Flags Faster Inflation and Softer 2026 Growth

War damage to energy systems is lifting prices, squeezing output.

Overview

  • Ukraine’s central bank, which kept the policy rate at 15% Thursday, said inflation has turned up and is likely to quicken to about 9.4% by year-end.
  • NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy cut the 2026 growth outlook to 1.3% after power‑sector strikes and a harsh winter slowed first‑quarter output to an estimated 0.2% year over year.
  • Deputy Governor Volodymyr Lepushynskyi said exports should grow faster than imports over time, though the payments‑balance gap could widen to more than $49 billion because the budget shortfall and defense and energy import needs remain large.
  • The Finance Ministry reported April general‑fund revenue of 301.5 billion hryvnias, including 55.1 billion in grants, which helps the government keep salaries paid and basic services running.
  • Official data show state and guaranteed debt at 9.233 trillion hryvnias ($210.82 billion) on March 31, with a $2.36 billion drop in March in dollar terms from repayments and exchange‑rate moves, and most borrowing on low‑interest concessional terms.