Overview
- The National Bank of Ukraine on Oct. 23 kept the key rate at 15.5% to safeguard price and currency stability as energy-sector attacks and fiscal strains raise risks.
- Ukraine lowered its GDP outlook to 1.9% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026, noting September inflation at 11.9% and persistently high inflation expectations.
- The NBU signaled possible easing in the first quarter of 2026, contingent on external financing progress, including an EU decision on a reparations-loan framework, with a roughly $60 billion gap projected for 2026–27.
- On Oct. 24 the Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4%–5%, and indicated a higher average rate path of 13%–15% next year.
- Russian officials cited proposed VAT increases, higher gasoline prices after refinery strikes, and new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil as near-term inflation drivers, while cutting the 2025 growth forecast to 0.5%–1%.