Overview
- By Wednesday, July 1, analysts and officials say sustained Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have knocked roughly one third of Russian refinery capacity offline, driving processing to multi-decade lows.
- Fuel shortages and official rationing have spread beyond border regions into Moscow and the occupied Crimea, a problem President Vladimir Putin publicly described as a "certain shortage" that requires accelerated repairs.
- Germany has widened its travel warning to cover all of Russia because of the danger from drone strikes and falling debris and because of the risk of arbitrary detentions of foreign nationals.
- Russian forces have responded with attacks on Ukrainian fuel facilities, including strikes on five petrol stations in Dnipropetrovsk that caused fires, casualties and at least one reported death.
- Moscow is reported to be negotiating fuel imports to stabilise supplies, a shift that adds economic and political strain on the Kremlin and increases the chance of a cycle of escalation that will keep civilian fuel access and military logistics under pressure.