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Ukraine Central Bank Starts Easing With Cut to 15% Key Rate

Cooling inflation opened space to loosen policy.

Overview

  • Policymakers reduced the benchmark from 15.5% to 15%, the first rate change since March 2025.
  • Inflation slowed to 8% year over year in December, with the bank projecting about 7.5% for 2026 and a return to the 5% target by mid‑2028.
  • The 2026 GDP forecast was trimmed to 1.8% as the electricity deficit, seen at 6% this year after 7% in Q4 2025, is set to shave roughly 0.4 percentage points off growth.
  • The EU plans €90 billion in support across 2026–2027, reserves stand at a record $57.3 billion, and the bank expects them to reach about $65 billion by year‑end.
  • Officials cited lending growth above 30% year over year and ongoing talks with the IMF on a $8.1 billion program while pledging to maintain foreign‑exchange stability.