Overview
- Official ONS data published on Tuesday show the jobless rate rose to 5.0% for the three months to March while vacancies fell to 705,000, the lowest level since 2021.
- Regular pay growth slowed to 3.4% in the first quarter and total pay including bonuses rose 4.1%, leaving real wages barely ahead of inflation.
- An early ONS estimate pointed to a provisional fall of about 100,000 payrolled employees in April but the office warned this monthly reading is more uncertain and may be revised.
- Lower‑paid sectors have been hit hardest, with retail and hospitality recording large drops in vacancies and payrolls and youth unemployment rising sharply to 16.2% for 16–24‑year‑olds.
- Policymakers and analysts say the spike in energy costs from disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is weighing on demand and hiring, so the Bank of England will watch wages, payroll revisions and upcoming inflation data for signs on rates.