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UK Posts Record £30.4bn January Surplus, Beating OBR Forecast

Driven by January self‑assessment receipts plus lower debt interest, the surplus now faces questions over durability.

Overview

  • The Office for National Statistics reported a £30.4bn public sector surplus for January, the largest monthly surplus since records began in 1993.
  • The figure was about £6.3bn stronger than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s November forecast, offering Chancellor Rachel Reeves a timely boost before the 3 March Spring Statement.
  • January’s tax take reached a record £109.7bn, with capital gains tax rising by about £7bn to £17bn and self‑assessment income tax up £3.6bn to £29.4bn.
  • Debt interest payments fell to roughly £1.5bn in January as lower inflation and rates reduced costs on index‑linked and short‑term debt.
  • Borrowing over April–January totaled £112.1bn, down 11.5% year on year yet still the fifth‑highest for the period on record, while economists caution some gains may reflect one‑off timing effects; separate ONS data showed retail sales volumes up 1.8% in January.