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UK Jobs Market Softens as Unemployment Rises to 4.9%

It signals weaker hiring demand that may ease wage pressure on inflation.

Overview

  • ONS data show the unemployment rate was 4.9% for the three months to May, up 0.2 percentage points year‑on‑year but down 0.1 points on the prior quarter.
  • HMRC payroll records recorded 85,000 fewer employees on company books between May 2025 and May 2026, while month‑to‑month payrolls were broadly unchanged with a 3,000 rise.
  • Vacancies fell by 7,000 in the April–June quarter to about 712,000, a decline that the ONS says was driven mainly by smaller firms cutting back on hiring because of higher labour and operating costs.
  • Private‑sector wage growth dropped below 3% for the first time since 2020, though overall regular pay growth stayed at 3.4% and still exceeded CPI inflation by roughly 0.4 percentage points.
  • The figures, published Tuesday, provide fresh evidence of easing labour demand that could shape fiscal and jobs policy and have prompted government concern about youth unemployment after recent ministerial changes.