Overview
- The Office for National Statistics, which reported Wednesday, said CPI was 3% in February, the last reading taken before the Iran war began.
- The Bank of England kept rates on hold and warned the conflict has driven up oil and gas via disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, lifting fuel and utility costs and pushing near-term inflation higher.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves outlined contingency plans for targeted energy-bill help, proposed new Competition and Markets Authority powers to detect and stop price gouging, and pledged legal insurance to keep major energy projects moving.
- Ofgem’s energy price cap shields households only until the end of June, and analysts expect a higher cap after that, which risks larger bills through the summer.
- Industry and City forecasters say food inflation could briefly top 8% by June in a severe energy shock and headline CPI could reach roughly 4.6–5% later in 2026, with some economists warning of recession risks if oil stays elevated.