Overview
- Official ONS data show CPI slowed to 3.0% in January from 3.4% in December, the lowest annual rate since March 2025.
- Cheaper petrol, a reversal in December’s airfare jump, and softer food prices pulled the headline rate down, partly offset by higher hotel and takeaway costs.
- Core inflation eased to 3.1% and services inflation dipped only to 4.4%, highlighting stickier domestic price pressures closely watched by the MPC.
- Labour-market indicators have weakened, with unemployment around 5.2% and wage growth cooling, strengthening the case for policy easing.
- Markets assign a high probability—around 80%—to a March cut after the BoE’s narrow 5–4 hold at 3.75%, with inflation projected to approach the 2% target by spring and further cuts priced later in 2026.