Overview
- Official ONS figures show GDP rose 0.1% in the October–December quarter and 0.1% in December, leaving 2025 growth at 1.3% versus forecasts closer to 1.4%.
- Services registered no quarterly growth, production rose about 1.2%—helped by a recovery in car output at Jaguar Land Rover—while construction fell 2.1%, its worst showing in more than four years.
- November’s monthly growth was revised down to 0.2%, and analysts said prolonged pre‑budget uncertainty curbed activity late in the year.
- Business investment dropped 2.7% in Q4, the steepest quarterly fall in four years, highlighting fragile corporate confidence.
- The Bank of England has trimmed its growth outlook (2026 to 0.9%, 2027 to 1.5%), and markets see the latest data reinforcing the case for further rate cuts.