Overview
- Industry groups warn of food inflation near 9% this year, with IGD flagging meat, dairy, highly processed staples, and greenhouse-grown produce as the most exposed categories.
- Analysts estimate a typical UK household could pay about £470 more over a year for groceries if these pressures persist.
- The threat stems from disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a route for roughly one fifth of global seaborne oil, which has driven up fuel and shipping insurance costs.
- Reduced supplies of fertiliser components are raising costs on farms and in processing, which then show up on supermarket shelves.
- Charities report rising strain, with 12% of homes struggling to afford food and food bank use about 45% above pre-pandemic levels, prompting fresh calls to strengthen UK production and storage.