Overview
- The Item Club's regional outlook, reported Sunday, projects a 0.4% drop in UK employment in 2026, equal to about 163,000 net jobs, citing oil and shipping shocks tied to the Iran conflict.
- South Wales and the Humber are flagged as most exposed, with losses of about 5,700 and 2,800 as manufacturing and construction shed roles due to higher energy and materials costs.
- Retail and hospitality slowdowns are expected to cut 25,000 jobs in London, 12,500 in Birmingham, 9,800 in Leeds, and 6,200 in Glasgow.
- The Bank of England says unemployment could reach 5.6% this year in a downside scenario linked to the war’s economic effects.
- The government points to targeted help, including up to 25% energy bill cuts for 10,000 manufacturers, and reiterates its clean‑power‑by‑2030 goal.