Overview
- The Office for National Statistics reported a 0.1% fall in GDP for April, a monthly reversal confirmed in data released on Friday that followed strong gains in February and March.
- Services output fell 0.2%, led by a 4.3% drop in arts and recreation and a 9.1% plunge in sports activity after cancellations of major Gulf events reduced turnover for UK firms.
- Retail sales dropped 1.3% and motor fuel volumes plunged about 10%, with forecasters and business comments pointing to households front‑loading purchases in March as pump prices rose.
- Economists and institutions have cut growth forecasts and warned the energy price shock will push inflation higher later in 2026, creating a policy dilemma for the Bank of England over rates.
- Beyond the numbers, analysts say the full hit will arrive with delayed trade and cost pressures, leaving households facing tighter budgets and the government exposed to tougher fiscal choices.